Friday, September 23, 2011

A Windfall from Twist?

Are we inadvertently reaping a windfall as consumers from the Fed's Operation Twist that originally brought such negative reactions and sell offs on Wall Street?  Commodity prices, including oil, are crashing.  Gas prices at the pump are falling, and perhaps food prices will follow. While generally deflation is not considered a positive thing, perhaps this will give consumers some relief from the artificially high prices at the pump and in other 'non-core ' inflationary items such as food--which grew out of the Fed's QE2 program earlier this year.  Lower energy prices might help jump-start sputtering industries and lower transportation costs for goods in general--putting downward pressure on prices of competitive manufactures, while money saved at the pump and in the grocery store might encourage consumers to go back to consuming, and hence set merchandisers and manufactures back to supplying and the economy back to growing.  On the cautious side, the Fed's maneuvers have complex implications for the markets that may not be fully understood, and in this climate it's hard to look very far into the future.  Is this an unforeseen windfall from the Fed's pronouncements this week, or a fleeting phenomenon?  At this point any relief, no matter how minor seems good.

D.T. Johnson

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